The Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJI) $DJI today closed at $36,338.30. The Index made a new all time high, and new monthly high, on November 8th at $36,566. This week, the index attempted to take out that high. The attempt failed. The momentum has stopped this week. We’ll see if it can go to a higher monthly high, next month. See stock chat below:
| Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJI) |
PerkinElmer Inc. (PKI), in the food, medical, and cannabis lab testing equipment industry, breaks out after a 5 month sideways move. The stock is trading, on a 200 day relative strength moving average (RSMA), 10.7% above the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The lab testing companies, such as Labcorp (LH) and Quest Diagnostics (DGX), are trading above the SPY also. We could make a snarky comment here but we’ll leave that to the snarky social message boards. (hint: don’t buy the gold miners, buy the pick and shovel stocks).
| PerkinElmer (PKI) breakout |
| PerkinElmer (PKI) RSMA vs. (SPY) |
The Gold Miners Index (GDM) $GDM today, is breaking out short term, over that reversal that occurred last week on 12-17. That high was $875.91. A positive indication would see the index close over this at the close of the week. The index continues bearish long term, for over a year, as defined by a series of lower highs, and lower lows. ..see stock chart below:
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| Gold Miners Index (GDM) |
The US Stock Market, going into the close of the year, continues to outperform most all of the global stock markets, on a relative basis. This blog does not make predictions nor forecasts. But it will be interesting to see how far into the new year this trend continues. And this has implications for the “allocators”, and why markets do what they do,.. much to the confusion of the blogosphere.
We’ll spare you a dizzying 30 page tomb of statistics, like those pithy blog posts found over on z-hedge, which would make Phds’ in Stats blush, and post one chart here, which sums it up: The S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) relative to The SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF (SPDW), relative strength moving average over a 200 day time frame. That has been quite a pairs trade.
Summary: The (SPY), in an Uptrend, continues outperforming The (SPDW) by over 9% over a 200 day relative strength moving (RSMA), see stock chart below:
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| The SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF |
Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM) breakout over a six month sideways move. Breakout point was $13.07. See stock chart below:
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM) |
Today, The Gold Miners Index $GDM $GDX, after a short covering frenzy yesterday, slammed into overhead resistance at $869.90 (see stock chart), and failed. We’ll see if it tries a run again. Long and nibble.
| Gold Miners Index $GDM $GDX |
The Gold Miners Index $GDM $GDX sells off again
After *The Chair* speaks, gold stocks continue selling. $868 looks to be near term overhead resistance…should any meaningful bounce develop. Treasuries down, USDX down, oil and gas stocks up…today. Stock chart below:
| Gold Miners Index (GDM) |
The Gold Miners Index $GDM $GDX held near term support. Today it closed under last weeks low of $836.69, but tested and closed above that 12% November sell off low ending on 12_03 of $832. See stock chart below:
| Gold Miners Index (GDM) |
Junior Silver Miners stocks trendfollowing
The Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ), bear market, headed down towards a major reversal area at $11.24. We’ll see what happens at that level.
This watch list is a pure, rules based, momentum trend following strategy.The watch list is the SPDR Sector ETFs scored, ranked and sorted by trend momentum. The analysis measures trend relative strength over 4 time frames: 63 days, 126 days, 189 days, 250 days. The relative benchmark, the trend signal, is 20% annualized. The trends are indexed, with added weight on the 63 day time frame. The S&P 500 Index SPDR ETF (SPY) is added to the watch list for relative performance comparison. The top rank score of 100% is outperforming all items on the list. If nothing else, all the ETFs, with a positive trend, and, above 70% Rank should be Long. Why the 20% benchmark? The Real Rate of Return (RRR) , after taxes, inflation, and other expenses, should be a positive number. Think of the 20% as the risk free rate of return (Treasury Yields, as a “risk premium”, in a world of artificial rates and inflation, long ago, no longer apply).
| Symbol | ETF | Trend Score % | Rank |
| XLK | SPDRs Select Sector Technology ETF | 6.94 | 100% |
| XLRE | Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (The) | 2.54 | 92% |
| XLY | SPDRs Select Sector Consumer Disc. ETF | 1.28 | 83% |
| SPY | SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF | 0.78 | 75% |
| XLU | SPDRs Select Sector Utilities ETF | 0.16 | 67% |
| XLP | SPDRs Select Sector Cons. Staples ETF | 0.06 | 58% |
| XLV | SPDRs Select Sector Health Care ETF | -0.14 | 50% |
| XLB | SPDRs Select Sector Materials ETF | -0.60 | 42% |
| XLE | SPDRs Select Sector Energy ETF | -0.82 | 33% |
| XLI | SPDRs Select Sector Industrial ETF | -3.04 | 25% |
| XLF | SPDRs Select Sector Financial ETF | -3.26 | 17% |
| XLC | Communication Services Sector SPDR ETF | -8.64 | 8% |
ARK ETF (ARKK) is trading 23% below below the SPDR S&P Index ETF (SPY) by 23% over a 200 day moving average. See stock chart below:
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| ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) |
This watch list is pure momentum trendfollowing. The watch list is the SPDR Sector ETFs ranked and sorted by trend momentum. The analysis measures trend strength over 4 time frames: 63 days, 126 days, 189 days, 250 days. The trends are indexed with added weight on the 63 day time frame. The S&P 500 Index SPDR ETF (SPY) is added to the watch list for relative performance comparison. The top rank score of 100% is outperforming all items on the list. If nothing else, all the ETFs above 70% Rank should be Long.
| Symbol | Name | Rank |
| XLK | SPDRs Select Sector Technology ETF | 100% |
| XLY | SPDRs Select Sector Consumer Discretionary ETF | 92% |
| XLRE | Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (The) | 83% |
| XLE | SPDRs Select Sector Energy ETF | 75% |
| SPY | SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF | 67% |
| XLB | SPDRs Select Sector Materials ETF | 58% |
| XLU | SPDRs Select Sector Utilities ETF | 50% |
| XLF | SPDRs Select Sector Financial ETF | 42% |
| XLV | SPDRs Select Sector Health Care ETF | 33% |
| XLI | SPDRs Select Sector Industrial ETF | 25% |
| XLP | SPDRs Select Sector Consumer Staples ETF | 17% |
| XLC | Communication Services Sector SPDR ETF | 8% |