Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) update

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) high volatility on the Uptrend

This is trend following. This is not a forecast and is not a prediction. 

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), on the weeklies, broke out and is in a volatile Uptrend. The index is trading 6.6% in excess of a 15% annualized rate of growth (CAGR), over a 39 week (3/4 of a year) relative strength moving average.

Stock chart below - 

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 Index relative to the Long Term US Treasury ETF (TLT), over the 39 week relative strength 

moving average, is trading 15% above. It is plain to see that money flow is pouring into private sector stocks, compared to public debt. The relative strength cross over occurred during the week of February 1st 2023.

Stock chart below, comments welcome:

NDX relative to TLT

Anheuser-Busch (BUD) versus the beer industry and the stock market

 Anheuser-Busch (BUD) compared to the beer industry and the stock market

There are five major "Brewery" stocks listed on the US stock market. The 5 companies, according to The Global Industry Classification System (GICS), are listed alphabetically as follows:

Symbol	Company Name
ABEV	AMBEV S.A
BUD	Anheuser-Busch In Bev SA/NV
SAM	Boston Beer Company Inc.
CCU	Compañía de las Cervecerías Unidas SA
TAP	Molson Coors Beverage Co

In this post, we rank the stocks compared to Anheuser-Busch In Bev aka "Bud". Additionally, we add The S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) and The Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) for relative strength comparison.

The relative strength comparison metric is a 200 day moving average, where the stock price is indicated as a percentage above or below, sorted by strength. This is not a prediction and is not a forecast. The is pure trend following (see The Trend Following definition tab above), this is not fundamental analysis. 

The ranking:

Symbol	Company Name	200 day % above/below
CCU	Compania Cervecerias Uni	17.1
TAP	Molson Coors Brewing Co	10.1
BUD	Anheuser-Busch InBev	0
QQQ	Nasdaq 100 Index ETF	-1.1
SPY	SPDRs S&P 500 ETF	-6.3
ABEV	Ambev S.A.	-8.5
SAM	Boston Beer Co	-20.7

S&P 500 Index $SPX update

 S&P 500 Index update

The S&P 500 Index (SPX), closing today at $4,146.22, in rally mode, moved up and closed over a price reversal of $4,144. This risk is to the Up side. This is pure trend following. Stock chart below, comment welcome. 

S&P 500 Index (SPX)

Nasdaq 100 Index price reversals

 Nasdaq 100 Index price reversals

As the Quarter closed, The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) has rallied approx. 36% on an annualized basis, from the closing low of November 4th, 2022. Will Rogers famously said, “Invest in inflation”.

Today intraday, the (NDX) is trading at $13,116.  The immediate price reversal level to watch is $12,978. Trading above that level will help indicate the directional trend going forward. This is trend following, not forecasting or predicting. Stock chart below, comments welcome:

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)

The Semiconductor Index $SOX (SOX) price level

The Semiconductor Index $SOX (SOX) price level

The SOX Index #SOX has rallied approx 27% off the Dec low. As of the close today at $3,115, it is right up against a reversal overhead at $3,134. We'll see how it reacts if it gets back up there. Stock chart below, comments welcome:

Semiconductor Index $SOX

Gold ETF (GLD) overhead reversal

 Gold ETF (GLD) overhead reversal

The Gold ETF $GLD (GLD) rallying up to a reversal area at $ 178.10. We'll see how it reacts once it gets up there.

Stock chart below, comments welcome:

Gold ETF (GLD)

Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJI) headed back up

 Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJI) next reversal area

The Dow Jones 30 Index $DJI (DJI) sell off stopped, reversed and is headed back up. The stock index has been oscillating in a range for many weeks. The next significant, long term, reversal area is at $33,357. A close over that, will provide a clue as to the strength and direction of the rally. Stock chart below, comments welcome:

Dow Jones 30 Index (DJI)

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) stock update

 Pfizer Inc. (PFE) stock update

On our last Pfizer Inc. $PFE post, on January 28th, the stock was trading at $43.79. We indicated "There is a long term monthly pivot at $41.87." 

The selloff continues. As of today the stock is trading at $40.00, breaking the reversal. This indicates further downside trading. Updated stock chart (monthly) below, comments welcome:

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) stock analysis

 Pfizer Inc. (PFE) stock analysis

Pfizer Inc. $PFE hit an all-time high back in December of 2021, at $61.71. The stock is down approx. 30% since then as of the close Friday. That is down double the S&P 500 Index.

Fridays close was $41.75. The next major price Reversal area, below is $41.15. We'll see how the stock handles that price, on a weekly or monthly close.

Stock chart below, comments welcome:

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

Dow Jones Industrials $DJI Stock index continues stalled

 Dow Jones Industrials $DJI Stock index continues stalled

This post is stock market trend following, not a prediction and not a forecast. Individual investors, traders, analysts, and portfolio managers can develop their own decisions.

The Dow Jones Industrials Index $DJI continues stalled, long term, at the price level of $34,397. This is determined by numerous price reversals at this level, analyzing daily data long term. Stock chart below, comments welcome.

Dow Jones 30 Index $DJI

Dow Jones Industrials stalled

 Dow Jones Industrials $DJI stalled

This post is stock market trend following, not a prediction or forecast.

The Dow Jones Industrials Index $DJI January rally has stalled at the price level of $34,337. This is determined by numerous price reversals at this level, analyzing weekly data long term. Stock chart below, comments welcome.

Dow Jones Industrials $DJI

S&P 500 Index (SPX) rally continues

 S&P 500 Index (SPX) rally continues

This is pure trend following. This is objective price analysis, not subjective. As freaky as domestic chaos may be, it may be more freaky elsewhere. You'll notice some of the loudest blogger bears' personal opinions out there, never mention global capital flow, as if that doesn't exist. Tip of the hat for gathering likes. Is the situation treacherous? Of course.

The rally off the October low remains intact, on a weekly and monthly basis. Weekly and monthly look backs filter out intraday and daily noise. Stock chart below, comments welcome:

S&P 500 Index (SPX)

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) breakout

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) breakout

After the close today, Wednesday, February 1st, The S&P 500 Index $SPX (SPX), closed at $4,119.47, has broken out over longer term resistance. The previous pivot, or price level, was $4,101, as noted on the Jan. 30th post. This will encourage the trend followers (trend following), who are with the trend, and continue to frustrate the fundamental bears. Stock chart below:

S&P 500 Index $SPX (SPX)

Nasdaq 100 Index $NDX (NDX) breakout also today, stock chart below, comments welcome:

Nasdaq 100 Index $NDX (NDX)

S&P 500 Index (SPX) at resistance

 S&P 500 Index (SPX) at resistance

As of the close Friday Jan. 27th, the S&P 500 Index $SPX rallied up to and stopped at resistance at $4,101.
Stock chart below:

S&P 500 Index $SPX

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) stock long term price pivot

 Pfizer (PFE) stock long term price pivot

Pfizer closed Friday at $43.79. There is a long term monthly pivot at $41.87. The pivot is composed of multiple price reversals, going back to 2018. How the stock reacts at this level will be interesting. Stock chart below, comments welcome:

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

Newmont Mining (NEM) phat finger

 Newmont Mining (NEM) freak trade

Newmont Mining (NEM), the second largest market cap stock on the US listed gold miners list, apparently did a fat finger trade, a mistake human or machine, on low volume, today. So, to analyze this thing on a closing price basis, vs. the high/low, the next short term overhead reversal price is $54.35, trading today at the moment at $53.31. We are assuming the stock is not blo'd up. We'll see.

stock chart below, comments welcome:

Newmont Mining (NEM)

Gold, the S&P 500, and global capital flows

Gold, the S&P 500, and global capital flows

Gold is most often commented on in the context of inflation. Often, what you don' t hear are comments on other items that often outperform gold, in the context of inflation, such as energy, agriculture, real estate, overseas stocks, etc. The gold coin and bar dealers don't mention these other things. Gold is a better indication of confidence. There was more confidence in the "system" last year vs. this year. The tide has turned. As to why confidence has shifted, is a big fundamental question. If the answer is as simple as money printing, the picture today would be entirely different.

At the moment, gold, overseas stock markets, and a 15% annualized return (or a 15% RRR - Real rate of Return) are outperforming the S&P 500 Index.

From the perspective of US Listed ETFs, in US Dollars, the relative strength comparisons, using a 100 day simple moving average, gold, ex USA stocks, and "inflation" (RRR) are outperforming. This is a shift from recent history. 15% Inflation, taxes, and other expenses, is a modest benchmark. Food and energy prices, year over year, are way above the the 'CPI', 

Following is a brief summary of these relative strength trend comparisons, vs. an annualized rate of return of 15%, over a 100 day moving average.

Current Trends                        % diff
Gold ETF (GLD)                        7.9
China ETF (GXC)                     14.5
Europe ETF (IEV)                     12.0
S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)         0.4

Gold and silver stocks watchlist

Gold and silver stocks watchlist 

McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX), a gold and silver explorer, developer, producer, Market Cap $277.926M, surges to the top of the industry rally list. You can see on the table, the indicator caught the trend early on 11/07/22.

 

View the full gold and silver mining rally list here: Gold and silver mining stocks watchlist